This week we look at a rough guide to the tennis calendar, wonder why the clay season seems so predictable, and question the value of titles won after September. We also welcome back another member of the ‘best never’ club.
* Boring red (blue?!) clay – some people find the clay season boring, either through a belief that the quality of the tennis is lower or that one man (Nadal) is simply too dominant to create any real tension or drama. We’ll talk about the specifics of tennis and dominance in a moment, for now let’s look at how the very existence of a ‘clay season’ warps people’s perception of clay court tennis.
The tennis calendar, at least at the level that top 30-50 players play, is roughly hewn into seasons or ’swings’ as follows:
* Australia (January) – The tennis year starts with a bang in Australia – the conditions are often horrific, especially for junior players and there’s very little warm up – there are a few tiny events, nothing worth more than 250 ranking points (the lowest ranking tournaments on tour) and it’s partly this lack of a warm up tournaments at key points in the season that has seen the growth of (very well bankrolled) exhibitions – the most famous being the Abu Dhabi tournament that Rafa and Roger have used as a dry run for Australia the last few years. Those events aside, Australia is what it is, an almost standalone tournament.
This is part of the reason why the winner’s roster at Australia is so, well, odd – if you were to pick a player from the last 30 years that only won a single title odds are that it’s the Aussie Open (or possibly a pure clay-courter who struggled to retain the French) – a combination of rustiness, an unwillingness to travel (it is very far away) and conditions has lead to some surprise wins.
Another factor is the cumulative rankings – each tournament seeds players based on rankings (some slight adjustments apply for Wimbledon to account for competence on the now rare grass courts) – mid-season the rankings are a decent reflection of form – players will have maybe as many three or four tournaments in the month or so beforehand – a decent run-up to a given tournament.
But most players entering the Australian Open haven’t played a decent ranking tournament since the end of October. That’s a pretty long lay-off. As we’ve said the tournaments in the run up to Australia don’t offer a lot of ranking points and don’t attract the greatest of line-ups – so the Aussie Open drawsheets are based on staler information than any the other Slams. All in all there’s still something a little unsatisfactory from a purists point of view – there’s something a little random about the event.
* American/European Hard I, and SA Clay…. (Feb-March) – what follows Australia can be visualised by the players flying home in opposite directions – the Europeans go to the indoor hard-court tournaments in Rotterdam and Marseille – the Americans rock up to San Jose, Memphis and Delray beach – the South Americans (happy to play along to stereotypes and get as far as they can from hardcourts) return to a mini clay season in Mexico and Argentina.
None of these events are particularly massive, you might get one or two of the big name players at an event, but this year both Novak and Nadal skipped this whole mini section.
March finishes up with the coast-to-coast double of Indian Wells and Miami – both Masters events and both like to tout themselves as ‘5th majors’. This is when all the big players return and for those that skipped the various excursions to indoor courts or South-American clay these events can be bundle in with Australia as part of a trio of outdoor hard court ’spring’ tournaments.
* Eurostars – what follows IW and Miami is the most densely packed, prolonged and geographically contagious season in the calendar – the European clay court swing.
Reviled by the likes of Mardy Fish as he hates the food and the culture, dreaded by greats like Sampras and Roddick as it doesn’t suit their games – but broadly embraced by Europeans as we finally get to watch some tennis at a reasonable hour.
Clay kicks off in Monte Carlo, goes to Madrid and Rome – and ultimately to the French Open in Paris, at Roland Garros – the last vestige of the tennis club era and the only slam that still feels like a summer event at the local tennis club. Along the way there is a choice of extra stops in Barca, Belgrade, Portugal, Munich and Bucharest – for those coming from further afield there is a pre-Euro event on clay in Casablanca and one in Houston.
This is all packed between the third week in April and the first week in June.
* Momentum – having so many clay events packed on top of each other in an orderly build up to the French Open allows a player to build serious momentum coming into Rolland Garros – in terms of sharpness, movement, confidence and indeed often a mental edge on potential opponents – nothing remotely similar happens in the run up to Australia or indeed any of the other Grand Slam events.
* For Courses – Nadal’s success on clay is not just a matter of his game or his tennis DNA but also of circumstance and scheduling – a character like Nadal really benefits from the way the clay season is structured. Not only can clay tennis be slower and more methodical – the whole season acts as a massive sandbox for his game and lets him roll into the French with confidence brimming and his game at its absolute peak.
Put it this way – if we swapped two events – had the French Open in January and the Australian (for some reason) at the end of the clay swing – what would happen?
Granted, Paris in January would be a different set of horrific conditions, Nadal tends to do well in blustery matches but Nadal’s natural proficiency on clay would only go so far. His dominance wouldn’t be as nailed on a certainty.
Actually, the sudden move from clay to Australia might not bother Nadal that much. He’s a confidence player as much as anything and has shown that the sudden change in surfaces is something that doesn’t throw him that much, but Nadal’s utter dominance of clay is a consequence of, amongst other things, the schedule itself
This in no way is meant to belittle his achievement. I’m not suggesting that his dominance on clay is something that’s made easy for him. There’s an obvious fact that points to his excellence regardless of scheduling.
* The Channel Slam – when bogged down in a tedious debate about Nadal/Federer/Djokovic I like to take a moment to reflect on what a glorious time for tennis this is – one example – the French/Wimbledon double – an achievement managed only by a handful of players in history was pulled off in three straight seasons – Nadal in 2008 and 2010, Federer in 2009.
Anything said about dominating a clay season being easy should be held up alongside the fact that only Nadal, Borg and Laver have won a French-Wimbledon double more than once. It’s an incredible achievement.
The move from Paris to London is the most dramatic in the tennis calendar and it’s rightly considered one of the most impressive accomplishments in the game. For an idea of the difference between the two surfaces look at 2008. Nadal murdered Federer in well under two hours in the French– straight sets, 3, 1 and 0 – brutal. Impressive in terms of a study of dominance, but not that entertaining. We all know the Wimbledon final of 2008 is considered one of the greatest in history – and it was different – Nadal’s play that day was miles from what he did in Paris only a few weeks earlier.
* The Holy Grail – there is no grass court season, Wimbledon is the grass-court season, for many fans Wimbledon is the tennis season. If you could only win one tournament etc, there isn’t much more to say.
In fact part of the boredom with the clay season is probably due to sheer excitement from people waiting to see Wimbledon. But to stay with the calendar for a moment, there is a space before Wimbledon where players have a choice of some smaller grass events – Queens being the most famous.
Then after Wimbledon tennis is pretty much over. There are some straggler clay events, including the sadly relegated Hamburg, they seem of little consequence but they do detract from the next attempt at a condensed swing.
* The US Open series – The closest thing to the clay swing is what could clumsily be called the North American hard court autumn swing – a bit of a mouthful.
Where it suffers in comparison to the European clay season is that the first month is run parallel to a number of clay and grass tournaments – some of them attracting mid card European players eager to play their home tournaments, and also suffers from placing the two big events (Canada and Cincinnati) back to back at the end of the swing – meaning players can just turn up for them and use that as a US Open warm-up, skipping much of the ’series’ itself.
The three Masters tournaments on clay are spaced a little nicer (mainly due to the odd optional nature of Monte Carlo), this encourages more players to add another event or two to their schedule in between.
The last issue is just that – schedule – players are obliged to play a certain number of small events. In the European swing it can be convenient to play a small tournament but in the run–up to the US too much tennis on hard courts can wear a player down. Better to leave your outstanding tour obligations to the post US Open hinterland, phone in a performance in Japan or KL rather than risking injury or a loss of concentration from over cautiousness just before the US Open.
* The Wasteland – what happens after the US Open really doesn’t matter. There are two Masters events, one in Shanghai at the end of a month of tournaments in Japan, China and Malaysia, and one indoors in Paris at the end of a (second) stretch of indoor European tournaments. For most fans, and indeed many players, the season is over after the US Open. These remaining tournaments allow the players bunched in the lower end of the top 10 and as far down as the 20s to push for a finish in the Top 8 to qualify for the year-end championships. Others see it as a chance to cream some prize-money in tournaments where the top guys are already in a bit of a wind down (Djokovic really put the brakes on his season after the US Open – partly exhaustion, partly a lack of anything left to prove/worth fighting for).
If the Australian Open has the strangest collection of former winners of the slams then the indoors at Paris has it for the Masters.
As for the Asian Tour, Shanghai has a decent list of former winners, but the atmosphere of these events is always a little lacking. Unlike the other Masters events they aren’t a build up to anything in particular (the opposite in fact) and they aren’t so well established that they have a real sense of occasion about them, yet.
* The Murray Conundrum – A suspiciously large chunk of Murray’s titles come in the post US Open portion of the tennis season – 3 of his 8 Master’s wins and 10 if his 22 career titles. One explanation for this is that he is better suited to hard courts, an idea backed up by his Grand Slam record and his two wins in Canada and Cincinnati but undermined by his one title at Miami and zero finals at Indian Wells, the two biggest hard court tournaments outside the Majors.
Murray did reach the final in Miami this year but did so with two injury walkovers, against Raonic and Nadal, the lack of match practice costing him in a defeat to Federer in the final.
*The World Tour Finals - Murray is also pretty decent on indoor hard-courts but hasn’t carried this form to the World Tour Finals, played indoors in London for the last few years. Murray has yet to make a final at the WTF (excellent acronym) but Davedenko, Tsonga, Djokovic and Ferrer have all managed this feat (Nadal and Federer too, obviously).
There’s a whole article to be written about the year-end championships (and what an absolute shambles they are/have become) – another time maybe – suffice to say for now that it’s a fun event but one without a huge amount of consequence – it doesn’t really crown the best player in the world and nor does form from it really carry through to the following season.
To be continued.
* Back to Clay – So after that quick tour of the calendar there are a few things that make clay an obvious target for ire, it’s the only really identifiable mini-season, it’s predictable, it seems to go on forever before Wimbledon and the tennis is ugly.
Let’s deal with predictability. The French Open has had two winners since 2005, Wimbledon has had three, the US Open four and the Australian (even with its reputation for randomness) only three.
Growing up watching Sampras and later Federer there was a sense of inevitability at Wimbledon and the US Open but this didn’t stop me watching. It was the sheer dominance of the players and not anything inherent to the surface they played on that made the tennis ‘boring’ - this is what we have with Nadal at the French at the moment.
The same applies to the Masters. Regardless of surface the big events are dominated by the same small group of players. You can even find patterns amongst the shocks and losses – stick with me here….
*Order from Chaos – I’ve suggested that packing the clay tournaments together allows players to build momentum. What it also does is halt the momentum of some players coming off a streak on hard courts.
Let’s take 2010. Andy Roddick had a purple patch, losing the final at Indian Wells and winning in Miami. Then the clay season hit and his momentum faltered. Had Miami been followed by the Canada Masters or Cincinnati I don’t think it’s outrageous to suggest this form would have continued.
In fact looking at the later rounds in IW and Miami in 2010 and you see that Rafa and Soderling made the semis at both, Berdych made the quarters at one and the final at another. There are patterns of bad play too, Federer and Djokovic both made early exits.
In the other half of the hard court season a different pattern emerged (after the break for clay and Wimbledon). Federer made the finals in Canada and wins Cincinatti, Murray posted a win and a quarter final, Djokovic and Nadal made a semi and a quarter at each event. In terms of bad streaks we see Soderling make two early exits.
Looking at the results and draw sheets from those rounds it can appear that hard court tennis is more unpredictable. But we know better.
*Slip slide away – A player who posts a good set of results in the spring can see his performance tank on clay and grass, leaving him a harder slog at the tail end of the season than he’d have had in all the hard court events were held back to back. A weekly ranking system seriously punishes a dip in form.
Players who prefer clay can stockpile points on crushed brick and essentially hibernate through the second hard swing hoping to get by. Whereas a win in Miami might give you a slightly better draw when the clay season starts, not a bad deal by any means, someone like Roddick would rather have taken his 1000 points, ranking boost and his confidence to Canada than to Rome.
* This Summer – So will there be anything interesting in what remains of this clay season – well, yes. Many fans have already attached a footnote to Rafa’s win over Novak , citing distraction and grief. A re-match in Madrid and Rome might be a better measure of whether Nadal has exorcised his demons. Federer, remember him? He’ll be back, and Madrid suits him.
Players who are not supposed to be good on clay (step forward Messrs Raonic and Isner) have been doing well and the Madrid Masters is currently being played on blue clay – something people have gotten terribly upset about. This might have some kind of mental impact on the Americans (though as I write Isner just been dumped out, oh well)
* Home Country for Old Men – To wrap up, in the last edition we spoke about the age profile of the current men’s tour and mentioned former World No.2 Tommy Haas – now 34 years of age – in passing. Last week he beat top-seeded JW Tsonga (and then former Aussie Open finalist Baghdatis) in Munich. It’s a huge win for him and one that I’m claiming partial credit for.
It really was excellent to see Haas get a taste of a swansong in his homeland. You may not know much about Haas, that’s okay, he’s a quiet player. You may be surprised to know he was Number 2 in the world. At the age of 23 Haas was the next big thing in tennis, before the likes of Federer and Roddick et al had even appeared on the scene. His ascent was cut short in 2002. His parents were seriously injured in a car accident, his father fell into a coma and the then 24 year old Haas took a year off the tour to look after his family.
Injury hampered his eventual return, more than once, and he fell in and out of official rankings due to lack of play. His incredible talent has shone through in patches over the years (he has a recent win on grass against Djokovic) and while he’s never recaptured the form that saw him beat Samprass, Agassi and Safin as a young man he remains a joy to watch.
A win in Munich was unlikely but would have been fitting (he fell in the semis to Cilic), personally I’d love to see him make it to Wimbledon somehow, better than wasting wildcards on rubbish British players.
Haas has a two-year old daughter and has pledged to keep playing until she can come and see him. She may not be old enough to understand what’s happened this week but hopefully there’ll be a few more highlights from 2012 for the videos he’ll make her sit through when she’s old enough.
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Filed under: Analysis, General by Declan Bruton
Tags: « atp tour - Break Points - Madrid Masters - tennis »
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